A leading Australian beef industry analyst has said the lifting of import restrictions on US beef imports will have a virtually imperceptible impact on the day-to-day running of the Australian meat sector.
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Matt Dalgleish, Episode 3, said that while the news of US re-entry into the market, in the wake of the Australian government lifting biosecurity restrictions, sounded significant, the reality was far more circumspect.

"US beef prices are sitting far above Australian values, there is no way commercially US producers would commercially look to send large volumes of beef to Australia," Mr Dalgleish said.
The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) today published its final review for expanded markets for fresh beef imports from the US.
It said while the US has been able to export US-origin beef to Australia since 2019, this expanded access will now include products sourced from cattle born in Canada or Mexico, which are legally imported and slaughtered in the US.
A DAFF spokesperson said a key factor in allowing the changes to import rules was the US introduction of more robust movement controls over the past 12 months which means that all cattle, from Canada and Mexico, can be identified and traced to the farm and through the supply chain.
Mr Dalgleish said given current global markets and currency exchange rates at present he expected US beef exports to Australia would likely be limited to specialist lines.
"Something like buffalo, which is classed as beef for export purpose, or maybe a pre-processed product like a brisket or ribs that a particular restaurant wants to bring in for an authentic American experience, this could be where you see some product coming here, but it is not going to be a competitor in the volume market" he said.
"It is not going to be economically viable to do anything like the volumes required to create competition for the local market for Australian growers."
To put it in context, Mr Dalgleish said the record for US beef exports to Australia peaked at just 290 tonnes, back in 1994-1995.
This is just 0.07 per cent of what can flow the other way, with over 400,000 tonnes heading from Australia to the US last year.
And Mr Dalgleish said logistically, there had already been exports going through.
US beef that producers guaranteed had not been exposed to Canadian or Mexican supply chains has been allowed into Australia since 2019.
Mr Dalgleish said data showed 270 tonnes came from the US to Australia in the 2024-25 financial year.
"That is pretty close to the record already, and we haven't seen a big impact."
"For me biosecurity is far and away the biggest issue and if the government is confident that is under control then there will be no negative impact for the industry, it's largely symbolic."
Others within the industry had a similar train of thought.
Guyra livestock producer and vet, James Jackson, was relatively sanguine about the announcement.
Mr Jackson pointed out the 2019 rule change and said he was confident AQIS (the Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service) would have assessed all risks in making the decision to fully open access.
He also said the exchange rate of the Aussie dollar compared to the US greenback would also stymie the progress of US beef here.
However, he said the Australian industry would have to continue to be vigilant to ensure biosecurity remained paramount and called for Canadian and Mexican beef processed and rebranded in the US to be identifiable.
"At the moment, there is a foot and mouth disease outbreak in Venezuela. We don't want that beef coming into the US by way of grey channels, being rebranded and then exported," Mr Jackson said.
NSW Farmers biosecurity committee chair Tony Hegarty also said Australian farmers were happy to compete on an open global market, but was firm on biosecurity concerns needing to be factored in, saying he did not want to see it compromised in order to placate the Trump administration.
"This deal must not comprise our agricultural industry or our nation's biosecurity, particularly with beef coming from Canada and Mexico," Mr Hegarty said.
"Biosecurity is not a bargaining chip."

Angus Australia's president Sinclair Munro also said he wanted assurance biosecurity would not be compromised.
He said his organisation's expectations of the Australian government, on news of it lifting restrictions to US beef imports, were that the decision was backed with the utmost scientific studies and rigour.
Cattle Australia branded the Albanese government's announcement that long-banned US beef will be allowed into Australia as a "little disappointing".



