This election, Gen Z and Millennials hold most of the voting power. How might they wield it?

But this generational shift isn't just about numerical dominance. It's also about political unpredictability.

While the youth have progressive leanings, they aren't neatly aligned with Labor. The Greens are gaining ground and there are signs of a subset of younger men drifting right.

This makes them both a decisive and volatile force. So how might they vote?

According to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), youth enrolment (18-24-year-olds) at the end of March 2025 stood at 90.4%. This surpasses the national youth enrolment rate target of 87%.

Further analysis of enrolment data shows electorates with the highest proportion of voters under 30 saw unprecedented support for the Greens in 2022, with the party topping the vote share in four of the youngest seats.

Elsewhere, electorates with a high youth vote became battlegrounds, with Labor facing its fiercest competition not from the Liberals, but from the Greens.

Take Canberra, for example. A historically safe Labor seat was a comfortable Labor retain, but Greens' primary vote reached nearly 25%, pushing the Liberals out of the two party-preferred calculations entirely.

This year, the main contest for the youth vote will likely be between Labor and the Greens.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese knows how important these voters are. In a bid to retain the youth vote, he is already sweetening the deal for them, dangling higher education reforms like election cookies.

If re-elected, Labor promises a 20% cut to student loan debt by June 1. The government also plans a higher income threshold before repayments begin, and an expansion of fee-free TAFE places to 100,000 per year from 2027.

These proposals have received strong support from young people - even among Coalition voters.

This underscores the significance of youth issues in shaping their political behaviour. Young Australians are issue-based voters, with housing affordability, employment, and climate change topping their concerns, according to the 2024 Australian Youth Barometer.

They're acutely aware of intergenerational inequality. They're paying more tax than their parents did, while facing skyrocketing housing, education, and living costs. Financial anxiety runs deep, with 62% believing they'll be worse off than their parents.

Yet, they see lack of sincere government action to address their struggles.

Take housing affordability - a red-hot issue in the past three years. A bitter parliamentary standoff last year saw Labor and the Greens locked in negotiations over housing policy.

The Greens criticised the government's Build to Rent and Help to Buy schemes, calling for tougher reforms. They wanted rent caps, the winding back negative gearing and phasing out $176 billion in tax breaks for property investors.

Such parliamentary gridlocks are unsavoury to voters, but the rent cap debate could have given the Greens an edge among young people, most of whom are renters.

Youth trust in the Albanese government has slipped since 2022, according to the first wave of the ANU 2025 Election Monitoring Survey. Perceptions of politicking over important issues like housing could be part of the reason why.

Another fault line in the youth vote is the gender divide.

There are signs of a right-wing shift among young men, much like in Donald Trump's America. According to The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll in November 2024, 37% of men aged 18-34 back opposition leader Dutton, compared to just 27% of women.

Pollsters point to young, non-university educated voters in the outer suburbs and regions as potential disruptors. They're volatile, disillusioned and more likely to vote against a system they feel has failed them.

This trend is harder to spot in aggregate data, likely due to compulsory voting, but studies suggest a subset of men with economic grievances - particularly blue-collar workers - are drawn to anti-government rhetoric and the discourse of white male victimhood.

Many express nostalgia for traditional masculinity and feel alienated by progressive social shifts. Such a perception leads to a "backlash" against these changes.

This resentment plays out well online. Trump, for example, has mobilised young men by mastering direct communication through digital media and podcasts, and Dutton seems to be taking notes.

So a lot hinges on the online battleground. It's about reaching all types of young voters with relatable, political messaging.

The days of one-size-fits-all political advertising are over. Younger voters consume media differently, making political messaging more about influencers than traditional advertising.

Major parties need to step up their game in digital-first platforms, moving beyond mere presence on social media to crafting compelling, digital-first content.

Grassroots and community-driven campaigning, both online and on the ground, can bridge the disconnect. The Greens' success in Brisbane proved this, with young, personable candidates engaging directly.

Meanwhile, the establishment parties are lacking young, relatable leaders who can tell stories that resonate.

Intifar Chowdhury, Lecturer in Government, Flinders University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.