Climate change policy is leadership poison in Australia. It has been a 'killing field' for Liberal, Labor and Nationals leaders since Malcolm Turnbull got rolled at opposition leader by Tony Abbott in 2009.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
The most recent example was its use to justify the dumping of Michael McCormack a few short months ago by Barnaby Joyce.
And - pandemic aside - it is presenting Scott Morrison with one of his most difficult challenges. How does the Prime Minister hold together a Coalition that spans everyone from climate change deniers to true believers?
Yet the world demands a new Australian position on the climate emergency. Not least because temperatures are rising and the earth's climate is already changing.
A global deal, a commitment to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, is to be sought at November's COP26, the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow.
The Morrison Government needs to bring itself to the net zero by 2050 table with its own carbon reduction commitments, but first the Liberal-National coalition need to agree on how get there.
It is a start, but importantly, moderate voices in the government, importantly senior figures such as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, are now making the economic and financial case that interest rates and major projects are at risk through climate inaction. Meantime, Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor has been tasked with showing how it can be done with 'technology, not taxes.'
This technology roadmap, pretty much all for the Nationals, will guide $20 billion in funding decisions towards yet to the realised green or 'clean' hydrogen and carbon capture and storage.
Leader Barnaby Joyce has gone from 'no deal' to 'deal me in' to making demands for rural and regional sectors, including farmer and blue-collar jobs. He wants power reliability guarantees, reportedly 'bucket loads of cash for the bush' and ultimately the final say on an 'Australian net zero deal.
He says the coal industry should not be threatened.
"My message to the coal industry will be the coal industry continues doing the job it's been doing for our nation now for some time and if as we progress to an alternate fuel source, it won't be jumping off, jumping off a cliff and hoping to get a parachute on the way down," he told the ABC.
"We'll be transitioning from one to the other when the other is apparent."
Other viable fuel sources are apparent, but Mr Joyce points out fossil fuels, with iron ore, are Australia's biggest exports.
The Nationals have not discussed this as a party yet, so it is concerning that the positions appear to be locked in. Senator Matt Canavan is 'deadset' against a global 2050 climate deal.
Frustrated former minister and Nationals Member for Gippsland, Darren Chester, has had enough. He supports a sensible, aspirational 2050 target and has given himself some time out from the Nationals party room to reassess his position.
It is not just climate policy for Mr Chester. According to him, it is a leadership issue. He says there has not been any attempt to moderate hard right wing "disrespectful and offensive" views from colleagues including George Christensen and Senator Canavan.
He's had approaches from leader Barnaby Joyce since his weekend announcement, but he's not spoken to him just yet.
There are 'wide-ranging' views in the party, according to Mr Joyce, and a majority of 21 Nationals MPs are needed for a government decision on a net zero by 2050 deal. Entrenched views will be very hard to overcome.
The Prime Minister has not committed himself to attending Glasgow personally. He does not need to. A leader's attendance at such events is largely symbolic.
The deal is Morrison government has committed itself to setting out its long-term emissions reduction plan prior to Glasgow.
If it does not, it will be isolated on the world stage, whether Mr Morrison attends or not.