As pointed out in the media, Trump has been forced to recognise that you can't effectively deal with the coronavirus in a tweet, or with a boast about how "clever" you are.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Indeed, COVID-19 may do to Trump what the Democrats have failed so far to do, namely kill off his chances of winning a second term.
Trump's initial response, true to form when events and circumstances seem to be running against him, was to essentially deny and ignore it - "nothing to be seen here" - off to Florida for a couple of days of golf, etc.
To add insult to his injury he put hapless VP, Pence, in charge of handling the issue.
However, as the contagion was beginning, the number of recorded cases started to rise, some early deaths were recorded, and the US stock market collapsed anticipating significant negative effects on the US economy, even the possibility of a recession, Trump was finally forced (on March 10) to declare his intention to deliver "the mother of all" stimulatory packages to protect the US economy.
It is most surprising that Trump didn't immediately recognise the likely very significant negative impacts of the virus on the US economy, given that his whole re-election strategy is predicated on him having created a strong US economy, and on his capacity to sustain that strength.
It was also surprising that Trump didn't respond immediately to the stock market weakness and volatility. He had consistently claimed credit for the sustained strength of the US stock market which, under the uncertainty of the likely economic effects of the virus, complicated by the effect of the Russia/Saudi "war" on oil prices, was quickly recording its worst performance since the GFC.
The US Federal Reserve certainly moved faster than the White House in unexpectedly cutting the official interest rate by 0.5 per cent on March 3, well ahead of its next scheduled meeting. Perhaps Trump waited as last Friday's employment numbers (March 6) were much stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate falling to just 3.5 per cent.
It is most surprising that Trump didn't immediately recognise the likely very significant negative impacts of the virus on the US economy.
Trump's announcement of his intentions to deliver a stimulus package resulted in a very strong reversal (5+ per cent) in the stock market, only to be reversed the next day when he failed to deliver it.
Clearly, Trump now has a serious challenge to manage both expectations and the US economy, and he needs the Congress to support him, but there are early signs of tension between Trump and key Senate colleagues on just what such a package should include, and on how fast it can be delivered.
It should also be recognised that Trump's tax cuts and other spending to date has been unfunded with the budget deficit now over 5 per cent of GDP and debts mounting alarmingly - so much of the growth to date has been on the tick!
Moreover, while the virus poses a serious economic challenge, it is, in the end, also a very significant test of the US health system and services, which will probably fail to perform.
Trump has spent much of his presidency obsessed with bagging Obama, and especially wanting to dismantle Obama Care, his health policies which did much to extend health insurance and the availability of health services to the lower income groups.
Ironically, Trump's first major health initiative has been to get the health insurers to effectively extend coverage to low-income earners, at least as far as being able to get tested at no cost.
However, there has been a significant general shortage of testing kits and facilities, so significant in fact that Bill Gates has stepped in to fund the supply of testing kits to householders in Seattle, one of the early areas where the virus was seen to be having a significant effect.
Only a fool would believe that the impact of this virus on both the US economy and health system will be short-lived. Indeed, as Trump is late into the game in terms of recognising the significance of these challenges, there must be very real doubt that the impacts of the virus can be easily contained, and therefore that its ultimate effects can be minimised.
A transactional, narcissistic Trump may prove to be just such a fool, maybe losing to a Biden, something he would find very hard to take.
John Hewson is a professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, and a former Liberal opposition leader.
