Julia Gillard will lead the new minority government not because she is in the stronger position but because at least one independent thinks she is in the weaker.
It was a strikingly candid remark from the Member for New England, Tony Windsor, whose support for Labor will give Gillard the barest possible majority – 76 seats in a 150-seat chamber – to Tony Abbott's 74.
In announcing his decision, Windsor told a press conference this afternoon that he had decided to support Labor because it was more likely to allow the Partliament to run a full three year term.
The Coalition, he said, was more likely to run to a new election as soon as possible.
Asked why he thought so, Windsor replied: “Because I think they would be more likely to win.”
Labor, however, is “more likely to be here for a longer period of time.”
The longevity of the new government, he added, was “key” to his decision.
In other words, Windsor has chosen deliberately to side with the party that he thinks is less likely to win the support of the Australian people at another election.
Asked specifically if this were the case, he replied: “That's my call.”
And it was also the call of many Coalition backbenchers, he added.
This lays bare the calculus of self-interest.
On his own confession, Windsor is prepared to deny the Australian people the government of their choice so long as he can prolong his own position of extraordinary leverage in holding the balance of power.
Windsor was just as blunt in his analysis of how he is exploiting the position that electoral fortune has granted him.
Under both Labor and Coalition governments, he said, country people were “always sidelined.”
No longer: “This is about using the political system to the advantage of the people we represent,” said Windsor.
And so it is. Gillard has offered the independents a “regional package” with a prima facie price tag of $10 billion.
Almost immediately, Gillard publicly declared that the next allocations of funding for hospitals and education would give priority to the regions.
One of the other independents holding the balance of power, Rob Oakeshott, in declaring that he, too, would support a Gillard government, said that “no one living in the city needs to be scared – we are looking for equity” for country people.
On policy matters, Windsor and Oakeshott cited two in common as top priorities in deciding which party to support – Labor's national broadband plan, and its position on climate change.
Oakeshott agreed with Windsor that he believed Labor was less interested in going to the polls quickly. And stability was vital to him, he said.
He disagreed with Windsor's reasoning – that it was because the Coalition was more likely to win.
But the inescapable conclusion from Windsor's remarks is that Gillard will be prime minster because she is more likely to be dependent on the crossbenchers.
Like a lover seeking an emotionally needy partner, this pair of independents has found happiness in a dependent government.
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